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TotalEnergies SE: Fourth Quarter 2023: Main Indicators

PARIS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Regulatory News:

TotalEnergies SE (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE):

The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ fourth quarter 2023 aggregates are shown below:

Main indicators

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4Q23

 

3Q23

 

2Q23

 

1Q23

 

4Q22

€/$

 

 

 

1.08

 

1.09

 

1.09

 

1.07

 

1.02

Brent

 

($/b)

 

84.3

 

86.7

 

78.1

 

81.2

 

88.8

Average liquids price * (1)

 

($/b)

 

80.2

 

78.9

 

72.0

 

73.4

 

80.6

Average gas price * (1)

 

($/Mbtu)

 

6.17

 

5.47

 

5.98

 

8.89

 

12.74

Average LNG price ** (1)

 

($/Mbtu)

 

10.28

 

9.56

 

9.84

 

13.27

 

14.83

Variable Cost Margin, European refining ***

 

($/t)

 

50.1

 

95.1

 

42.7

 

87.8

 

73.6

* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.

** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.

*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).

(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.

Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates

  • Hydrocarbon production is expected around 2.45 Mboe/d (as indicated at the end of October), benefiting from LNG production growth, partially compensating for the Canadian oil sands assets disposals, effective this quarter. Due to these disposals, the effective tax rate of Exploration & Production is expected to increase.
  • Integrated LNG results will reflect the positive evolution of prices and production volumes.
  • Integrated Power results are expected to be above $500 million, with the fourth quarter cash-flow further benefiting from dividends distribution from equity affiliates.
  • Downstream results are impacted by the decrease in refining margins and by weak chemicals demand in Europe. In addition, the refining utilization rate is lower this quarter, due to turnarounds at Satorp and Antwerp and the gradual restart of the Port Arthur refinery.

2023 Sensitivities*

 

Change

 

Estimated impact on

adjusted

net operating income

 

Estimated impact on

cash flow from

operations

Dollar  

+/- 0.1 $ per €

 

-/+ 0.1 B$

 

~0 B$

Average liquids price**  

+/- 10 $/b

 

+/- 2.5 B$

 

+/- 3.0 B$

European gas price – NBP / TTF  

+/- 2 $/Mbtu

 

+/- 0.4 B$

 

+/- 0.4 B$

Variable cost margin, European refining (VCM)  

+/- 10 $/t

 

+/- 0.4 B$

 

+/- 0.5 B$

* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2023. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.

** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.

A new market indicator for European refining margin

TotalEnergies will introduce, from 1Q24, a new market indicator for European refining, the “European Refining Margin Marker” to replace the “Variable Cost Margin, European refining”. This indicator will be calculated based on public market prices ($/t) with a formula using a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies, as disclosed here below.

Corresponding 2023 data is provided below to reflect this change.

 

 

 

 

4Q23

 

3Q23

 

2Q23

 

1Q23

European Refining Margin Marker (ERM)

 

($/t)

 

52.6

 

100.6

 

40.1

 

90.7

The formula may be reviewed on a yearly basis in case of changes in market conditions, such as global supply and demand balances, CO2 EU ETS evolution and/or TotalEnergies’ European refining portfolio.

NWE Crude Markers  

%weight

High Sulfur
(Arab Light, Forties, Johan Sverdrup)
 

50.0%

Low Sulfur
(WTP, Ekofisk)
 

50.0%

 

 

NWE Product Markers  

%weight

LPG  

3.0%

Naphtha  

7.0%

Gasoline  

20.0%

Distillates  

52.5%

Fuel Oil  

12.0%

 

 

Variable costs  

 

Natural Gas (TTF)  

-2.5%

CO2 (EU ETS)  

-7.0%

Non energy costs  

-8.0 €/t

Disclaimer

The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.

The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the third quarter 2023 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.

This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.

These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.

Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value): adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.

Contacts

TotalEnergies SE

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