Redistricting maps deliberations expected Monday

(The Center Square) – Deliberations on state legislative and congressional redistricting maps are expected to begin on Monday following broad overviews presented to North Carolina lawmakers on Thursday.

Both House and Senate redistricting committees held hearings on Thursday on state legislative and congressional redistricting maps unveiled Wednesday, laying out the criteria used and other considerations for resetting political boundaries for the third time in as many years.

The committees will review the legislation in more detail during committee hearings on Monday and Tuesday, before moving to vote by mid-week. Following three public hearings on the redistricting efforts earlier this month, there will be no more public comment before the votes, though a public portal to submit comments will remain open, legislative leaders said.

Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, presented two versions of new congressional districts detailed in Senate bills 756 and 757, both of which political observers believe could shift the delegation from a 7-7 split between Democrats and Republicans to a 10-4 split favoring the latter. A 9-5 or 11-4 split is plausible.

Republicans have a 221-212 majority in the U.S. House, with two vacancies. The potential five- to seven-seat swing is drawing national attention.

For context, prior to the 2022 midterms, the split was 9-4 GOP in 2013-15 and 10-3 in 2015-17, 2017-19 and 2019-21. Getting 7-7, according to one expert testifying in litigation, had a 1.7% chance when 1,000 simulations were run through a computer. The state’s voter rolls, as of this past Saturday, are nearly even thirds for the more than 7.3 million registered – 36.4% unaffiliated, 32.8% Democrats and 30.1% Republicans.

Map drawers did not use racial data in the process, he said, but legislative staff included that data online Thursday for the public to consider. Criteria involved included equal populations, compactness, continuity, political subdivisions, communities of interest, and incumbent residences, he said.

SB756, considered a stronger Republican map, would double bunk incumbents in District 2, held by Democratic Rep. Deborah Ross, as well as District 3, represented by Republican Rep. Greg Murphy, putting Democratic Reps. Don Davis and Valarie Foushee in peril.

SB757 is expected to result in Republican leaning districts for current Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson and Wiley Nickel, while creating a more competitive District 1, represented by Davis.

Raleigh would be split into three congressional districts in both maps, while one would split the Triad into three districts, and the other would split the Triad into four. Two congressional districts would be wholly within Mecklenburg and Wake counties in both versions.

Sen. Minority Leader Dan Blue, D-Wake, pressed Hise on why only Wake and Mecklenburg counties were split multiple times.

“We have kept as many counties whole as we can,” Hise said, adding fewer splits in those counties would result in more in others.

Other issues raised by Senate Democrats focused on the consideration of racial data, compactness scores, and whether lawmakers would commit to preserving their records for expected litigation.

Hise stressed the constitution prevents the use of racial data unless certain conditions are met, and evidence from redistricting efforts in recent years suggests it’s not. He vowed to provide racial and compactness data, and said he’d consult with counsel on preserving records.

Sen. Warren Daniels, R-Burke, gave an overview of the state Senate districts in Senate Bill 758, which left many of the 50 districts unchanged, though changes could double bunk Democrat incumbents in Wake and Mecklenburg counties.

In the House, committee Chairman Rep. Destin Hall, R-Watauga, said House Bill 898 redrawing the lower chamber’s 100 districts was crafted with the help of a consultant Jay Springhetti, with similar criteria provided by lawmakers that takes into account population deviation, county groupings, splits and other factors.

Like the upper chamber, racial data was ignored but election contest data was considered, he said.

“No members of the state House plan who are running for reelection are double-bunked,” Hall said.

The House committee did not review the map in detail, but instead focused on outlining the process used to craft it, with plans to delve into specifics on Monday.

Democrats in both chambers raised concerns about the maps violating the Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising minority voters, but Republicans stressed there’s no evidence as required by law to implement racial considerations.

Analysis “has been done in multiple lawsuits in this state (in 2021 and 2022) … and those studies showed there’s been no racially polarized voting in this state,” Hall said.

Rep. Pricey Harrison, D-Guilford, said the June U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding Alabama’s congressional districts in Allen v. Milligan suggests localized analysis of racially polarized voting is required.

“It doesn’t seem that that’s happened,” she said.

Harrison and other Democrats also repeatedly urged committee chairmen to reconsider allowing more public comment before next week’s votes.