One-third of Virginians shifted into new Congressional district
(The Center Square) – About one-third of Virginians will be in a different Congressional district than they were during the last election under the new lines approved by the Virginia Supreme Court.
The new lines will shift more than 2.4 million voters within the commonwealth’s 11 districts, according to an analysis from the Virginia Public Access Project. The new lines will take effect before November’s general election, in which every member of Congress will be up for reelection.
Some districts changed more drastically than others. The 7th District, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, will only have one-fourth of its old base; the other 75% of the district will be new. Spanberger, who now lives outside of the district lines, will still run for reelection. According to a VPAP analysis, the 7th District will be the commonwealth’s most competitive district with about 48% supporting Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 46% supporting former President Donald Trump. The Republican candidate to challenge Spanberger will be chosen in this year’s primary.
The 1st l District will also face major changes with slightly more than 58% of its constituents being new members. The district is represented by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman who is running for reelection. The district leans Republican.
About 35% of the 2nd District and the 5th District and less than one-third of the 11th District will be new members. More than a quarter of the 6th and 10th Districts will be new constituents. Nearly 22% of the 4th District will be new members and less than 20% of the 9th and 3rd Districts will be new. The least changed will be the 8th District, in which only 8.6% of its members will be new.
Based on a VPAP analysis, Democrats and Republicans will be in similar positions to where they were during the last elections with the number of likely Democratic and Republican seats being unchanged. There will be four districts that are strong Democratic favorites and one district that leans Democratic. There will be two districts that are strongly Republican and three districts that lean Republican. There will be one tossup.
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