New Hampshire population experiences ‘moderate growth’ through in-migration

(The Center Square) – New Hampshire’s population grew moderately through in-migration, in keeping with the state’s trend for a third year, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in population estimates.

It’s been a steady climb since 2011, Ken Gallager, principal planner at the New Hampshire Office of Strategic Initiatives, told The Center Square.

“I would call it moderate growth,” Gallager said. “It’s not really the level of growth that we used to see back before the big housing market crash from ’08 or so. We sort of bottomed out in growth around 2011, and since then it has rebounded slightly.”

The modest gains New Hampshire made are entirely attributed to migration, according to Gallager. In fact, New Hampshire’s death rates exceed its births, and the state ranks among those with the highest median age, he said.

New Hampshire was joined only by Maine among New England states to add residents, WMUR reported. For the third year in a row, the Granite State led New England in percentage growth, gaining approximately 5,500 people.

The estimates are based on data between July 2019 and July 2020, as the 2020 U.S. Census data will not be released until spring.

Vermont, Rhode Island and Connecticut all lost people in the estimates, continuing their trends of the past three years, WMUR reported.

On the whole, the country’s growth rate was the lowest seen in 120 years, Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy, told WMUR. Given this and the fact that 16 states total lost populations during the estimates’ time frame, New Hampshire’s modest growth is surprising, he said.

Analysis by the Carsey School showed this in-migration stalled during the Great Recession, but has since begun to pick back up, WMUR reported. Past research from Johnson indicated most of the people moving to the state were young adults.

Gallager takes issue with that designation. He said he doesn’t see the influx of people moving in changing the age-structure of the state significantly.

“It tends to be people in their thirties moving to someplace where they can buy a house,” Gallager told The Center Square. “What happened was those people in their 30s or early 40s, at this stage in the century, are now the millennials, and so people hear the word ‘millennials’ and go, ‘Oh, young people are coming in!’ But actually what’s happening is the millennials are now reaching the age where they move to New Hampshire and buy homes.”

Despite the fact that the state is suffering a housing shortage, housing appears to be growing in tandem with the population, Gallager said.

Population estimates are based on the number of new building permits issued within a year, he said. They will be in a better position to analyze housing in relation to population growth when the real census numbers are out.

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