Country Forecast World Report – Global GDP to Rebound by 5.4% in 2021 – ResearchAndMarkets.com
DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The “Country Forecast World” country profile has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that global GDP will rebound by 5.4% in 2021 (up from a previous forecast of 5.3%).
The sharp rebound will boost global GDP back to its pre-coronavirus level in late 2021. However, the pace of recovery will vary greatly across regions.
Asia and North America will recover the fastest, with real GDP back to pre-coronavirus levels as early as this year.
Key Topics Covered:
1. Country Forecast World
2. Key trends
3. World growth and inflation
- Asian economies fared better than others last year
- Developed economies will be in recovery mode this year
- Some regions will take longer than others to recover
- Inflation poses a risk to the global recovery
- Global trade flows will rebound strongly this year
- The pace of vaccination is the main variable for economic projections
- Widespread immunisation will take time
- A slow rollout of coronavirus vaccines is a major risk for the recovery
4. World growth and inflation: Risk scenarios
- Worsening US-China ties force a full decoupling in the global economy
- Unexpectedly fast monetary tightening leads to a US stockmarket crash
- Tighter domestic and global financial conditions derail the recovery in emerging markets
- A complete breakdown of the OPEC+ deal leads to an oil price crash
- Widespread social unrest weighs on the global recovery
- A conflict erupts between China and Taiwan, forcing the US to intervene
- EU-China ties worsen significantly
- New Covid-19 variants emerge that prove resistant to vaccines
- Severe droughts prompt a famine
- Inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economies
5. Regional summaries: North America
- US economic growth is accelerating, creating new risks to the outlook
- The Covid-19 vaccination rate continues to rise, but uptake has slowed
- The path forward on an infrastructure bill remains uncertain
- Congress will pass only a slimmed-down version of Mr Biden’s stimulus bill
- Inflation now poses the main downside risks to the economic outlook
6. Regional summaries: Europe
7. Regional summaries: Asia and Australasia
8. Regional summaries: Latin America
9. Regional summaries: Middle East & Africa
10. Exchange rates
- The unwinding of QE at the start of 2022 will cause US dollar appreciation
- Continued accommodation by the ECB will weigh on the euro
- The renminbi will depreciate in the second half of the year and in 2022
- The yen will depreciate further against the US dollar
- The pound will appreciate over the medium term
- The search for yield will benefit emerging-market currencies
11. World trade
- The global trade picture remains fraught with risks in 2021
- The global trade recovery will be uneven, and services trade will lag
- The pandemic has prompted debates about the future of globalisation
- US-China ties are the biggest (non-coronavirus-related) threat to trade
12. Commodity prices
- The post-pandemic rebound has lifted commodity prices across the board
- Oil prices hit a three-year high in July
- OPEC+ faces a delicate balancing act in 2021-22
- Brent prices are forecast to peak in 2022 before gradually falling back
13. Global assumptions
For more information about this country profile visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/5vne65
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