Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” very likely reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during early hours of 18th May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained surface wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (TIME OF ISSUE:0415HOURS IST, DATED: 17.05.2021, INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-north-westwards with a speed of about 18 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0230 hours IST of 17^th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 71.7°E, about 360 km north-northwest of Panjim-Goa, 170 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 350 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat), 310 km south-southeast of Diu and 900 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17^th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during early hours of 18^th May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained surface wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall: 

• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• South Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over south Konkan & Goa and adjoining Ghat areas on 17^th May.
• North Konkan: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from today afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Diu and southern most Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu & south Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18^th May.
• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18^th& heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 150–160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase becoming 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph from the forenoon of 17^th May.
• Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing along & off south Maharashtra –Goa and adjoining Karnataka coasts, 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast during next 12 hours. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17^th morning till 18^th morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts. It is likely to gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 120 -140 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmedabad, Botad, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi, Kheda districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Surendranagar, districts from 17^th midnight till 18^th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Prevailing high to very high sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal over northeast Arabian Sea from 17^th morning till 18^th May noon and improve gradually thereafter.
• Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off south Maharashtra–Goa coasts during next 12 hours and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17^th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17^th midnight, till 18^th May forenoon and improve gradually thereafter.

(iv)Storm surge warning

• Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:

about 3 meter (m) over Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch, Anand, southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall. (Details given in Annexure-I).

(v) Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea till 18^th May.
• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17^th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17^th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

 (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Kheda and interior parts of Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

​(Please CLICK HERE for details in graphics)