Marquette Law School Poll: Trump leads Biden 51-49
(The Center Square) – The latest voter snapshot from Wisconsin gives former President Trump a slight edge and a bit of momentum.
The latest Marquette Law School Poll shows the former president leading President Joe Biden 51-49 among both registered and likely voters.
“It’s still awfully close,” MU Poll director Charles Franklin told reporters.
The latest poll was conducted from April 3-10, 2024, interviewing 814 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.
Franklin said 8% of registered voters were undecided, while 6% of likely voters told pollsters they were undecided.
The 51-49 number is just for a head-to-head matchup. Franklin said the numbers shift when more candidates are added to the mix, but Trump retains his lead.
“In the presidential race with additional candidates included and for all registered voters, Trump receives support of 41%, Biden 40%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 2%,” the poll states. “Among likely voters in five-way race, it’s Trump 42%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 12%, Stein 3%, West 1%.”
Franklin said one of the biggest questions for Biden is whether his voters will turn out and vote for him.
“Biden supporters, or would-be supporters, aren’t super excited about [him]. But they seem to still prefer him, and will be likely to vote for him,” Franklin explained. “If they vote, and that again is what we’re watching all year, does this low enthusiasm translate into a real turnout problem for Democrats?”
Franklin said the data doesn’t seem to show that it’s a problem.
Pollsters asked about Wisconsin’s race for the U.S. Senate as well.
Among registered voters. Democrat Tammy Baldwin has 44% of the vote, and Republican Eric Hovde has 37%, while another 15% say they are undecided.
Among likely voters that changes to 45% for Baldwin, 41% for Hovde, and 15% undecided.
That large number of undecided voters tracks with Hovde’s favorability rating in the new poll.
“Baldwin Is seen favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 42%, net +5. In January, she was net -3 on favorability,” pollsters noted. “Hovde is seen favorably by 19%, unfavorable by 24%, with 56% who ‘haven’t heard enough.’”
The MU Poll shows that the presidential race is completely underwater with voters.
“For Biden, 59% have a negative opinion, 40% have a positive opinion, for net -19. For Trump, 56% have negative opinion, 43% positive opinion, for net -13,” the pollsters said.
As for the issues, Franklin said most voters in Wisconsin are concerned about their pocketbooks, then the border and then abortion.
“Thirty-three-percent said the economy, 21% immigration and border security, 13% abortion policy, 11% Medicare and Social Security, 6% foreign relations, 5% healthcare, 2% Israel-Gaza war,” the MU Poll noted.
